Monday, October 29, 2012

Spain's Regional Problems

On Friday, Balearic Islands and Asturias joined the autonomous regional governments of Andalusia, Canary Islands, Castile-la Mancha, Catalonia, Murcia, and Valencia (see Fig. 1) in asking help from Madrid's newly created Regional Liquidity Fund (FLA),...

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Chinese Industrial Profits Reveal a Lot more

The Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported in September that industrial profits in the country dropped for the fifth month in August, with an overall year-on-year decline of 3.1% (see Fig. 1) for the first eight months of the year, and the August month alone reporting a year-on-year decline of 6.2%

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Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Chrome translation utility to uncover Chinese taxation data

Dr. Ed Yardeni in his morning briefing on July 26th, 2012 highlighted the effort of Sailesh S Radha, market strategist of IMRA LLC, in uncovering the Chinese monthly tax data using the Chrome browser's translation utility which translated Chinese Han to English.  Here's the Ministry of Finance, PRC release of the July tax data translated from Chinese Han to English - click here.  

Here's what Dr. Ed had to say:

"We are constantly on the lookout for more data to add to our chart book. I recently asked our consultant, Sailesh Radha, to work on China’s official tax revenues. He found the latest official release in Chinese and used Google’s translation utility to read it. He ran two charts showing tax revenues in yuan and relative to GDP during H1-2012. A third chart shows the y/y growth in revenues during H1-2012 versus during H1-2011. 

... The data confirm a significant slowdown in Chinese economic growth during the first half of this year: 

(1) Tax revenues rose only 9.8% y/y during H1-2012, down from 29.6% over the same period a year ago. Growth rates were down across all 11 major revenue sources. 
(2) Personal income taxes actually declined 8.0%. A year ago, they rose 35.4%. Corporate income taxes rose 17.3%, but that was down from 38.3% a year ago. 
(3) Revenues from property transactions took a hit. The ones from “Land Value Increment” rose 14.7% vs. 91.1% a year ago. “Deed” revenues fell 9.9% after rising 27.5% a year ago." 

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Euro Area Private Lending by MFIs takes a nose dive

The latest figures published by ECB reveals that private lending by Euro area Monetary Financial Institutions took a nose dive in August, and particularly those to financial intermediaries.  The finer details are revealed in the latest publication Sailesh Radha, chief market strategist of IMRA LLC, prepared for Yardeni Research Inc.  In the morning briefing that Dr. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research Inc. sent out to this clients on Monday, the October 1st, this is what he had to say:

"Will the Europeans ever get their act together? In last Thursday’s FT, James Mackintosh observed in his column: “Every time Europe’s leaders are given a breathing space by the European Central bank, they return to their petty disputes and progress stops.” While they ceaselessly debate about how to keep their monetary union from disintegrating, the stress on the euro zone’s economy is worsening. 

On Thursday, the ECB released data showing that monetary aggregates continued to grow in the euro area, with M2 up 3.2% y/y through August. However, M2 growth was negative in Spain (-7.3%, August ), Greece (-15.0%, July), Portugal (-6.2%, July), and Ireland (-3,5%. July). The ECB’s data also showed that lending by monetary financial institutions (MFIs, excluding central banks) to the private sector plunged by €766 billion (saar) over the past three months through August. That was mostly attributable to a big drop in loans by MFIs to other financial institutions. Now we know why ECB President Mario Draghi felt compelled in late July to promise to do whatever it takes to save the euro."

The monetary aggregates that that Dr. Ed is referring to is based on the Euro Area Monetary Aggregates publication prepared by IMRA LLC for Yardeni Research Inc.