Monday, September 24, 2012

IMRA's latest work on indicators published by Yardeni Research

Today, Yardeni Research published two new economic indicators YRI-WLI (Weekly Leading Indicator) and YRI-WCI (Weekly Coincident Indicator), which were developed by Sailesh Radha, chief market strategist of Intermarket Research & Analytics LLC (IMRA).  Those indicators were relayed by Dr. Yardeni through his Morning Briefing that he sent to his clients in Wall Street and Europe.  


Here's what he had to say on the new indicators we developed:


"Open book. I’ve asked our consultant on such matters, Sailesh Radha, to work with me on constructing weekly leading and coincident economic indicators, a.k.a. YRI-WLI and YRI-WCI. Our version of the WLI includes four weekly indicators: the S&P 500, the high-yield corporate spread, the CRB raw industrials spot price index, and initial unemployment claims (inverted). It is highly correlated with the ECRI-WLI, but tends to amplify that index's swings. It’s been swinging higher in recent weeks. 

We also compile a weekly coincident index. Our current version of the YRI-WCI has just three components: railcar loadings, electricity output, and petroleum products usage in the US. Our WLI tends to lead our WCI . Our coincident index hasn’t been rising as smoothly as the Conference Board’s monthly CEI. Ours surged in 2010, stalled in 2011, dipped during the first half of 2012, and rebounded in recent weeks. It remains below last year’s high."