Monday, September 24, 2012

IMRA's latest work on indicators published by Yardeni Research

Today, Yardeni Research published two new economic indicators YRI-WLI (Weekly Leading Indicator) and YRI-WCI (Weekly Coincident Indicator), which were developed by Sailesh Radha, chief market strategist of Intermarket Research & Analytics LLC (IMRA).  Those indicators were relayed by Dr. Yardeni through his Morning Briefing that he sent to his clients in Wall Street and Europe.  

Here's what he had to say on the new indicators we developed:

"Open book. I’ve asked our consultant on such matters, Sailesh Radha, to work with me on constructing weekly leading and coincident economic indicators, a.k.a. YRI-WLI and YRI-WCI. Our version of the WLI includes four weekly indicators: the S&P 500, the high-yield corporate spread, the CRB raw industrials spot price index, and initial unemployment claims (inverted). It is highly correlated with the ECRI-WLI, but tends to amplify that index's swings. It’s been swinging higher in recent weeks. 

We also compile a weekly coincident index. Our current version of the YRI-WCI has just three components: railcar loadings, electricity output, and petroleum products usage in the US. Our WLI tends to lead our WCI . Our coincident index hasn’t been rising as smoothly as the Conference Board’s monthly CEI. Ours surged in 2010, stalled in 2011, dipped during the first half of 2012, and rebounded in recent weeks. It remains below last year’s high." 

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Euro mess: Dr. Ed Yardeni highlights the work of IMRA's chief strategist

Sailesh Radha's (chief market strategist of IMRA LLC) recent analytical work on the "Euro mess" has been highlighted in today's Morning Briefing that Dr. Ed Yardeni sent to his clients.  Also read about it in his blog entry today.

Here's the text from the Morning Briefing referring to IMRA's research -

"Euro Mess. On July 26th, ECB President Mario Draghi promised to do “whatever it takes” to defend the euro. It may take a lot, especially to keep Spain in the euro zone. The latest data, compiled by our clever consultant Sailesh Radha from original central bank sources, show that non-performing Spanish bank loans rose to a record 9.9% during July. Spanish bank deposits continued to fall sharply in July, down €74.2 billion m/m and €207 billion y/y. The ECB lent Spain €411.7 billion through August, mostly through the LTRO facility. Pour another glass of sangria for Mr. Draghi."

"The TARGET2 imbalances continued to worsen in August as capital flowed from the south to the north of the euro zone. Last month, Spain had a record debit balance of €434.4 billion. Italy’s debit balance was a record €289.3 billion. Germany’s credit balance rose to a record €751.4 billion. The M2 monetary aggregates continued to fall y/y during July in Greece (-15.0%), Spain (-6.8), and Portugal (-6.1 in June). M2 was up in Germany (9.0), France (5.1), and Italy (3.8)."